How Ukraine can still win
Mainstream commentary immediately leapt to the assumption that Ukraine is doomed because of Donald Trump. Don't fall for it. The fight will continue.
There is a strong tendency now within the mainstream media: whenever Donald Trump does anything, they fall over themselves leaping to the conclusions that (a) he will achieve what he wants without opposition, and (b) everything and everyone is doomed as a result.
Why? Because IMPENDING DOOM sells papers and TV ratings, that’s why. They spent 2024 allowing the monster back into the city, and they’re spending 2025 panicking because the monster is destroying the city again.
This doomsaying has immediately taken hold on the subject of Ukraine — and the dark cloud of doom does more harm than good, because it obscures the path forward and upward.
There is absolutely a path forward for Ukraine — and a role for us to play in fighting for its freedom from Putin’s predatory neo-Soviet aggression.
Signs of life in Europe
First, there are encouraging glimmers from Europe, where there is talk of a massive aid package from the European Union, potentially €700 billion ($731 billion). One thing to watch will be the German national elections on Sunday, plus coalition-building afterward: if the new German government remains pro-Ukraine, the new EU package will likely come together in fairly short order.
By comparison, the US has provided around $100 billion in support to Ukraine thus far, and Europe has provided another $100 billion.
Is there Republican support for Ukraine?! You better believe there is.
Second, the picture from Washington is not nearly as monolithically bleak as the mainstream outlets would have you believe. All the headlines and analysis are a little too unanimous: Trump is killing support to Ukraine, and the Republicans in Congress are silent! Run for the hills!
Never mind that the extremely conservative chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Roger Wicker of Mississippi, stated that “Putin is a war criminal who should be in jail for the rest of his life, if not executed.” Never mind that his neighbor, the equally conservative Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, said “Vladimir Putin is a gangster. He’s a gangster with a black heart. He makes Jeffrey Dahmer look like Mother Teresa. He has Stalin’s taste for blood.”
This does not sound like “silence” to me. And these do not sound like the utterances of appeasers.
But forget about the words, and let’s focus on the numbers — because what really matters on Capitol Hill is counting votes.
A tabulation of voting records found that 82 Republicans in the House and 21 in the Senate have backed American support for Ukraine. Take these votes, plus solid Democratic blocs (215 in the House, 53 in the Senate), and there are potential supermajorities for funding Ukraine, clearing the two-thirds requirement for overriding presidential vetos (290 votes in the House, 67 in the Senate).
The other important factor is the congressional leadership: the Speaker and the Senate Majority Leader control which measures even come to the floor for votes — and both Mike Johnson and John Thune voted for aid to Ukraine last year, despite Trump’s opposition.
Ahh, you might say, but that was before Trump won the election. Aren’t all of these Republicans going to cave and do whatever he says, just as they’ve done on almost all of his cabinet nominees? And look, none of them are opposing all the Elon Musk craziness!
Yes, but the Ukraine situation is fundamentally different.
Historically, virtually all cabinet nominees are confirmed. It is extremely rare for any nominee to be defeated — or to be pressured into withdrawing. While it is maddening to watch Republicans and even some Democrats rubber-stamp Trump’s cabinet clown car, that was always going to be an uphill battle.
Republicans’ DNA and the potential Reagan Caucus
Yet how is it possible for a bloc of Republicans to buck Trump on Ukraine — whereas they seem content to let Elon Musk run amok?
Nearly all current GOP politicians are committed to cutting government programs — so they can cut taxes on the wealthy and corporations.1 It is part of their DNA. Musk is likely acting in a grossly illegal and unconstitutional fashion, but most Republicans are calculating the ends justify the means.2
Yet there is another streak in Republicans’ DNA — Ronald Reagan calling the USSR the “Evil Empire,” pressing Mr. Gorbachev to “tear down that wall.” This used to be a sacred inheritance for nearly all Republicans, and even though most have now been infected with the pro-Kremlin “nationalist” virus, there is still a staunch faction of what we could call the Reagan Caucus.
Yes, many of these same Republicans are currently voicing support for Trump and saying he should have some time and space to end the war. For now.
But what if Trump stays true to form and appeases Putin? What if the European aid materializes in the coming weeks, giving Ukraine the help they need to reject any “deal” that will surrender Ukrainian land to Russia and/or block Ukraine from joining NATO — and continue fighting?
When the chips are down, will the potential Reagan Caucus stand up for Ukraine? I would not yet count them out. And we need to be making sure that those Republicans hear from us — and know that, at least on this one issue, we stand together.
And even when they fail to cut the programs, they cut the taxes anyway, which is why Republicans always balloon the deficit and have added 3.5 times more debt than Democrats since 1960.
At least right up until their own constituents get hurt and start howling. We’ll return to this.
To those who favor the US disengaging from the world stage so that Russia can take over, and who use money as an excuse to abandon Ukraine: If you think that helping Ukraine keep its sovereginty now is costing us too much, I promise you, the price paid to undo the damage done by Russia if they take over Ukraine and then move on to do the same in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, and beyond will be much, much higher.
FWIW, I just called Senator Wicker's DC office ((202) 224-6253), shared my name and state, and had a genteel conversation with the lovely person who answered. I explained that I called to 1) "thank the Senator for his leadership on the Committee on Armed Services" and 2) "implore him and his colleagues to check the bizarre and disturbing turn of events that has the President blaming the war on Ukraine and treating Putin like a dear friend." It was a conversation so I said a bit more than that but you get the idea. My input was collected, I was kindly received and thanked for calling. Calls matter! Please call your reps and Senator Wicker (or others on the Committee https://www.senate.gov/general/committee_membership/committee_memberships_SSAS.htm).