Canada = Ukraine = Taiwan

Why is Trump getting aggressive toward Canada? Because Putin and Xi would love America to revalidate an old murderous, imperialistic, colonial doctrine -- which we'll now call SIMBY.

Donald Trump’s new and persistent aggressiveness toward Canada is in some ways difficult to take seriously. It seems farcical. And at least in part, it is the latest example of Trump coming up with an outlandish publicity stunt that devours the news cycle and keeps everyone talking about him — like his staged McDonald’s nonsense, or his garbage truck gambit. From this perspective, Trump just wants to be the center of attention, no matter what, and every time we talk about him, we’re helping him succeed.

Yet I think there’s something deeper and more sinister going on here. The first question for a crime or other mystery is to ask who benefits (or to get more nerdy, cui bono in Latin).

So, who benefits from Trump saber-rattling with Canada? And Mexico and Greenland?

Same problem. Same energy.

Consider this. Trump suddenly wants America to start taking predatory stances toward its peaceful neighbors — including its immediate neighbors with whom it has a past history of invasion and war — tearing down the modern norm of keeping international boundaries sacrosanct¹ and reestablishing the old bloody doctrine that a great power has a “sphere of influence” in which it can do whatever it damn well pleases.

Sound familiar? It is Russia’s argument for why it may invade Ukraine (because it used to be part of the Russia-dominated Soviet Union) — and it is China’s argument for why it should devour Taiwan (because it was marginally governed by China from 1683 to 1895).²

If a Trump-led America revalidates the old pre-1945 doctrine, even simply through aggressive rhetoric and arm-twisting to renegotiate trade deals, then it provides Vladimir Putin and Chairman Xi with a bright green light to proceed with their rapacious ambitions.

While we’re at it, let’s give a more proper, contemporary examination of the old “sphere of influence” phrase, the kind of slippery euphemism that George Orwell warned us about in his classic essay “Politics and the English Language.”

What a “sphere of influence” really means is a carte blanche to kill.

To kill, to seize land, to cart off natural resources and cultural treasures, and to overthrow any local governments that might interfere with such colonial and imperialistic crimes.

The real doctrine underlying a “sphere of influence” should be renamed SIMBY — “shoot in my backyard,” or “shit in my backyard,” or in the case of Putin, “slaughter in my backyard.”

In turn, SIMBY is underpinned by the oldest doctrine of human affairs: because I’m bigger than you. Because I can. Because might makes right. It is an effort to revive and re-enshrine the very worst, most atavistic impulses of imperialism and unfettered violence.

There are other considerations as well when we think of what Canada, Ukraine, and Taiwan represent to their respective larger neighbors and their nationalist, imperialist strongmen. They are examples of freer, more democratic, more liberal societies right on their doorsteps.

Putin’s hatred of Ukraine stems from its successful efforts to hold free elections, to seek stronger relationships with the West, and to resist Russia’s efforts to co-opt and corrupt Ukrainian leadership. Modern Taiwan was literally created as a refuge for anti-communist Chinese forces after losing a long civil war to Mao Zedong and the communists, and while it began as a one-party state with limited political freedom, it has evolved into a more free multi-party democratic state with competitive elections and peaceful transfers of power, all anathema to the Chinese Communist Party.

And Canada? It famously has universal healthcare, but it also has a more welcoming immigration policy, much more affordable higher education, a federal minimum wage of $17.30/hour,³ and the richest middle class of any country in the world (a title which long belonged to America but slipped northward starting in 2010). Canada represents the opposite of everything that Trump, Musk, and their kleptocratic billionaire cronies want to do to ransack America and enrich themselves at everyone else’s expense. Even if they don’t actually annex or invade Canada, simply bullying Canada and getting it to change its policies under American pressure will validate the SIMBY doctrine.

This is what we’re up against: a global cabal of dictators and billionaires to take over as much of the world as they can.

Once again, we must take Trump both literally and seriously.

1. A norm that is often more honored in the breach than in the observance, particularly when it comes to less wealthy, less powerful countries outside Europe and North America. Though I would argue that an aspirational norm is still far better than no norm at all.

2. And if this cancerous doctrine were to be revalidated, the predation would not stop there: Putin and his allies have openly declared their intention to reestablish Russian dominance over all of Eastern Europe and the Caucasus and even to take back Alaska (which Russia sold to the US in 1867); if China were to gobble up Taiwan, they could turn to Korea and Vietnam (which China ruled during certain eras in the last 2000 years).

3. Yes, this is in Canadian dollars, and the exchange rate favors the US dollar right now, but it’s still a lot better than our medieval USD 7.25/hour federal rate.