Weekly Mailbag - What's next and what can we do about it?
The first installment of a new regular weekly Q&A -- this week, exploring what the heck is going to happen next and what any of us can do about it.
Welcome to the first of what will now be weekly mailbag Q&A sessions! Leave a comment on this post to send your question for next week1 — subscribers here on Substack will get preference over folks from other platforms. And keep all these questions coming! This was a really amazing response, and I absolutely love hearing from everyone (and still need to pinch myself that anyone is bothering to read or reply to me at all, especially in such numbers).
And away we go:
Anita Walker: Will trump be sentenced in NY for his 34 felony convictions?
I’m betting no. Judge Juan Merchan is showing a lot of hesitation to take action here, despite the fact that this should be a pretty simple call. Donald J. Trump is a private citizen, he is a convicted felon, a jury of the State of New York determined that he broke the laws of the State of New York, and he should be sentenced according to those laws. Justice is supposed to be blind, and Merchan is peeking under his blindfold and looking at who the defendant is. So is Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg. Either Bragg will voluntarily drop the charges, or Merchan will stay the case pending Trump’s new presidential term.
Curtis Dush: Is the immunity decision the final word? Can it ever be challenged or is it possible that the court would ever reconsider that decision? I know that is not the only thing, but it sure seems like that one decision has exacerbated the awful that lies ahead of us.
You’re right; the immunity decision certainly exacerbated the harm that’s currently being done to the country and the Constitution. It ruined what otherwise would have been a highly necessary trial on Trump’s January 6 conspiracy: the American people deserved to know what happened, and right now it is unclear if we’re ever going to get that day in court. Plus it strongly signals to Trump that he can act with impunity. Literally.
The cold comfort we can take right now — and I mean like locked in a walk-in freezer cold comfort — is that Supreme Court rulings can be overturned by future iterations of the Court. And I believe that someday this one will be overturned. But it could be decades away, especially now that Trump’s victory means that he could replace Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito with much younger justices to cement a right-wing majority on the Court for the long haul.
J. David: Is institutional inertia stronger than a likely Trump sabotage effort to destroy America?
I retain a stubborn hope along these lines. Inertia is a very strong force, even for the most determined of presidents. Think of all of the leaders we’ve had who wanted to exercise executive power for good and found themselves so often helpless against Washington’s inertia — against all the different fiefdoms and power players who will jealously guard their turf, privileges, and prerogatives — and one can easily look at Trump and say “good luck buddy.” But then again we’ve never had someone who wanted to sabotage the whole system like Trump does. We will have to aid inertia with our vigilance and relentlessness.
Ann Walsh: Can you predict what will happen to Social Security and Medicare? My husband and I are very concerned about SS and Medicare. I see that many others are, too. We voted blue up and down the ballot, along w our children and grandchildren. We are still reeling from the election loss.
This has been an exceptionally difficult few weeks. And I’m not going to lie: it’s not going to magically get better with some sort of deus ex machina. We have a very difficult road ahead. But I’ve long felt that even if Trump could be defeated we still had 10, 20, or even 30 years of battling Trumpism and global fascism ahead of us. The forces that have been unleashed against democracy and freedom are not going to vanish suddenly just because the malefactors who originally unleashed them are defeated or depart the stage.
As for Social Security and Medicare, I believe this is part of the inertia factor. There are lots of things that Americans want to change (although as I will keep saying over and over, Trump doesn’t have a mandate; he eked out a narrow victory). But Social Security and Medicare are not among them. They are enormously popular programs that a gigantic number of Americans rely upon — especially seniors, who have historically been and currently remain the most reliable voters. And not just in presidential elections. Who turns up to vote for midterm elections? For primaries? And further: who comes to town halls? Who calls elected officials? Who signs petitions? Retirees are disproportionately the most active citizens — and it stands to reason. They have more time in which to participate, and they’ve also learned over decades why government matters.
What we need to do is to activate the self-interest of other elected officials. If they come to fear that their political careers will be over if they take a certain action, they will think twice. Yes, most Republicans seem to live in mortal fear of Donald Trump turning on them and setting a MAGA primary challenger loose on them. So we need to make them even more afraid that they’ll be defeated by a bloc of furious voters if they mess too much with Social Security and Medicare — or the ACA, for that matter.
Now, will this mean that Social Security and Medicare will be left alone entirely? No. There will probably be cuts in coverage. Medicare may once again be restricted from negotiating for lower drug prices (although if enough people realize that such an action will cause prices to increase, this could either stop this change from happening, or result in electoral costs in the midterms and beyond for any politician who supported the increase). But I think wholesale changes are far less likely given the narrow Republican majorities in both houses. There are simply too many Republicans in Congress who would fear political death for going along with extreme cuts.
Tom Brice: What are the chances Gaetz is confirmed?
They don’t look especially favorable right now. Too many GOP senators have expressed skepticism. And it’s overwhelmingly clear that even Republicans in Washington cannot stand Gaetz.
The more interesting question is why did Trump float Gaetz’s name? Is this an example of Trump failing to read the room and understand how DC works? Or perhaps he knows full well that Gaetz is radioactive but does not care? Or is this a loyalty test? Or is this a deliberate overreach, the thing you ask for in a negotiation that’s obviously extreme, that you give away, so that the rest of your asks seem reasonable and are accepted? While people have dismissed the idea that Trump is playing “4D chess” or something of that sort, this is not a complicated maneuver. It’s a basic move that people make in contract negotiations every day.
Mr.Drone.Tastic: What should potus do in his last 70 days to offset the damage ahead?
I have some bigger ideas I’m working on, but let’s first talk about Ukraine. Two big things that Biden can engineer right now: (1) talk the Europeans into releasing the remaining $300 billion in frozen Russian assets they hold and providing them to Ukraine (so far they only gave $50 billion, representing the interest, not the principal), and (2) work out some sort of creative modern equivalent of FDR’s famous Lend-Lease program during World War II, in which Roosevelt circumvented Congress’s isolationist refusal to provide arms to the UK by lending them arms in exchange for long-term leases of British military bases. If I were Biden, I would send every bit of armament we can spare and ship it to Ukraine immediately, by whatever contractual or legal means necessary. Then even if Trump tries to undo those arrangements, Ukraine would already have possession.
Steph59Renee: Tristan, Here's my question. Why do the Democrats not step up when there is much they could do and say? They act like their hands are tired and mouths are zipped, but if they're not going to use actions, couldn't they at least use words? I need someone to step up and say, "Folks, we know how you're feeling. We know you feel lost, and we are here to do whatever we can and must do in this uneasy and upsetting situation." Just something? Biden hasn't said anything. Why are they so quiet when our world is falling apart?
I know. I do wish there was more leadership and empathy right now. There have been a few notes of encouragement by Tim Walz. But otherwise there has not been enough. I think they are all as shell-shocked by this as we are, if not far more so.
This has been a constant topic of discussion among a number of us who are lucky enough to be able to help — and we believe it’s time for a new community to help rally all of us, to provide comfort and information, and for those who are ready, to share the plans for how to fight back. Even if no one else does, we will step up and help, and stand alongside you, any way we can.
Much more on this, this coming week hopefully.
In the future, these might drop on Thursdays. Or they still may be on the weekends. We’ll see what the numbers look like.
What has to happen to invoke the Constitutional prohibition of insurrectionists in office? (all of them)
Tristan, 45 has done things that are illegal yet judges yield to him and he experiences no consequences. This rewards self-centered, illegal behavior and gives him permission to further implement his self-aggrandizing fantasies. Now he calls the press and many others, "the enemy within." So what happens when he assassinates his first "enemy," as Putin would do? We've got to hold the line somewhere before he begins to act out his annihilation fantasies. Please give us your perspective because this is exactly what happened with Hitler. No one stopped him.