How Republicans may revolt against Trump

As tariffs cause more pain, a growing number of conservatives are growing restless, and some are taking action, in Congress and the courts, to stop Trump's tariffs. What is their roadmap to a revolt?

It was the best of times; it was the worst of times. It was the best economy in over 50 years; it was the highest tax increases in over 50 years, the highest tariff increases in almost 100 years, and the worst stock market collapse since 2020, 2008, 1987, or the Great Depression, depending on much further everything keeps plummeting.

Donald Trump does not seem to care, and worse, he and his inner circle do not seem to know what they have done — and do not seem to know basic economics.

The #1 question everyone is asking is now: What the hell is going to happen, and where does this end?

Not sure who needs to hear this, but when the numbers go down, that’s bad. Someone may want to alert the White House.

The answer may be an unexpected one — because it may be conservatives that help lead a revolt to stop Trump and the tariffs, returning control over tariff rates to Congress (where it is vested by the Constitution).

I can hear everyone’s objections even as I type these words. It’s a cult. They never stand up to him. They’re scared of him. No one will ever hold him accountable.

All of those things are true. But ultimately these are self-interested political and economic actors — and they will operate in large part by personal cost-benefit analyses. If the cost of their support for Trump begins to feel heavier than the benefit of their support for Trump, the scales may shift with a sudden jerk.

Let’s game out how this could happen — and how it may already be beginning.

The Courts — Charles Koch and Leonard Leo did what?!?

First, there is already a very quiet coup happening in the courts, one that went almost unnoticed. The New Civil Liberties Alliance (NCLA) filed a lawsuit in the Northern District of Florida to stop the tariffs, arguing that Trump lacks the legal authority to enact them (specifically because he has based his authority on a federal law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), that relates to the use of economic sanctions against adversaries and makes no mention of tariffs).

But who is the NCLA? They’re a relatively new organization that focuses on administrative law and what they perceive as regulatory overreach — but most saliently, it is funded by Charles Koch and Leonard Leo.

Yes, that Charles Koch and that Leonard Leo.

This is, as Joe Biden might put it, a BFD. It shows that even though Trump has captured most of the conservative institutional apparatus, its principal bankrollers are unwilling to stand idly by while Trump annihilates one of the pillars of conservative orthodoxy — namely, free trade.

It also means that the tariffs could suddenly and surprisingly be stopped by a court order, any day now — and if we are focused on what might actually stop the current bleeding, this or another court challenge like it is a far more likely candidate, because it can be carried out by a single judge issuing a single order.¹

And finally, it also means that there could be an entire ecosystem of financial and other support for any Republican willing to buck Trump on tariffs, which is critical if we are to see a revolt on the political side and not just the legal.

Congress — 9 votes for a revolution?

Meanwhile in DC, there are already signs of pushback in the Senate — and while the conventional wisdom seems to be that the House is hopeless, that may not necessarily be true.

On the Senate side, there is a bipartisan bill co-sponsored by Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and Chuck Grassley (D-IA), who is appropriately enough the only person in the Senate who was alive during the Great Depression. That bill requires that all new tariffs expire after 60 days unless they are congressionally approved — and it allows Congress to stop a tariff at any time before that.

Cantwell and Grassley claim to have a total of 7 Republicans supporting the bill already — other than Grassley, co-sponsors include Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Jerry Moran (R-KS), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and, yes, Mitch McConnell (R-KY). The other 2 GOP supporters are easy to guess: likely Rand Paul (R-KY) and Susan Collins (R-ME), who voted for a different resolution to block Trump’s tariffs on Canada. And there’s at least one more potential vote for such a bill, one you may not expect — Ted Cruz, who’s voiced concern over tariffs and their effect on the economy.²

And this was all before the weekend of angst — and before whatever happens this week.

How could all of this work? Senate leadership has already indicated that the bill will get some sort of hearing. Would there then be a strong enough opposition to stop the bill from getting a final floor vote? If so, could there be 6 more votes to get to the 60-vote cloture threshold? It all depends on how much pain is being felt — and whether Republicans would see enough safety in numbers. And perhaps safety in knowing that someone like Charles Koch could help fund their re-elects even if Trump turns on them.

The House, of course, is a very different story, where the leadership is much more in lockstep with Trump.

But what if there were different leadership?

Three words: motion to vacate.

We all remember Matt Gaetz’s successful coup to oust Kevin McCarthy in 2023; at that point, a motion to vacate the chair — to force an up-or-down majority vote on the speaker — could be initiated by a single member of the House GOP caucus.

The threshold has now been raised to 9 members, as of the beginning of this year.

So consider this scenario. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) has already stated that he intends to bring a House bill to parallel the Cantwell-Grassley bill in the Senate. If Mike Johnson uses his Speaker powers to scuttle any consideration of Bacon’s bill, could there be 9 votes for telling Johnson bring this bill to the floor, or else?

I think many, many Republicans are finding themselves between the devil and the deep blue sea — somewhat literally. They can stand 100% with Trump even as the economy crumbles. Or they can try to save themselves, even as they may face a rising Democratic blue wave in the midterms. The more Republicans distance themselves from Trump on tariffs, the more they can start calling themselves “moderates” or “focused on results” or “true conservatives, focused on lower taxes,” the more they might be able to craft themselves lifeboats rather than going down with the ship.

There are 23 Republicans in the House who won their seats in 2024 by single-digit margins. Others won by larger margins but represent purple districts that are narrowly divided or that even went for Harris, or for Biden in 2020.

Bacon is one of those members, winning last November by less than 6,000 votes, only 1.85%, in a district (the famous Nebraska District 2, around Omaha) that voted for Kamala Harris by 4.6 points.

If someone like Bacon does not find ways to create daylight between himself and Trump, he may lose his seat next year. He may lose it anyway, despite his best efforts. But this is his best chance. And he also knows — or should know or will soon know — that there are going to be people out there like Koch who will potentially help prop him up.³

This is the dynamic that could lead to a Republican revolt against Trump.

And yes, even if both chambers could vote on a bill to rein in Trump’s tariff power, Trump could veto the bill.

But strange things happen once you actually force floor votes. If members in both houses are forced to cast votes on very clear-cut questions — like, for example, should Trump get to destroy the economy single-handedly, or should Congress have a say? — there may be more and more Republicans willing to take a stand. Even if that stand is really just to save themselves.

Just remember: the worse this gets, the more desperation may drive some very strange actions and alliances.

1. Of course then there is the question of whether Trump obeys such an order, but we’ll undoubtedly have more chances to talk about that question again soon.

2. And while I do not place much faith in conservatives suddenly remembering themselves rather than enjoying the poisonous political fruits Trump has given them, it is certainly notable that most of these people came from a conservative ecosystem in which there was absolutely no question as to the merits of free trade. It is in their political DNA. They are cosplaying as protectionists, just to curry favor with Trump. So if their own constituents — and maybe some financial backers — give them enough cover, they may be relieved, in a way, to return to their roots.

3. You could go even further, and imagine a scenario in which a group of House Republicans goes to Johnson and pushes for the Bacon bill to be put up for a floor vote, Johnson refuses, and Bacon goes forward with a motion to vacate, with Democrats supporting, toppling Johnson. At which point Democrats could decide that joining hands with the rogue Republicans to save the country is the right move — voting Bacon or another rogue leader in as the new Speaker. But I digress.